Population growth

What does this indicator measure?
This indicator measures the variation, either increase or decrease, in the population of the Dallas Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA). Aggregate population figures across the eight counties in the Dallas PMSA show changing population patterns over the last 35 years, such as more pronounced growth in some counties than others. These measures indicate not only the overall desirability of the Dallas area, but also may indicate comparative attractiveness of each county in the Dallas PMSA. This indicator also shows population increases or decreases by county and the contributing factors of births, deaths, domestic migration, and international immigration.

Why is this indicator important?
While population statistics are fairly straightforward, variations in population growth indicate the changing climate of a city, as well as the appeal of a particular area. If a community is desirable, it is assumed that people will remain or move there. Conversely, if an area is undesirable, residents theoretically will leave over time and population will decline. Of course, many other factors also influence the relative mobility of residents in a particular region, such as poverty and economic development. In general, population growth is seen as a positive indicator, provided the community’s standard of living is maintained and the overall economy in the area can support the new influx of residents.

How are we doing?
The world’s population has grown significantly in the last century, tripling to more than 6.5 billion people. As of January 2006, the U.S. population was approximately 298 million, of which slightly more than 1.3% were living in the eight counties of the Dallas PMSA. The increase of almost 240% in the Dallas PMSA population over the past 45 years demonstrates that the area appears to be a desirable location for new residents. The Dallas PMSA has seen especially high population growth during recent decades. The PMSA has outpaced average U.S. population growth (12%) in each of the past four decades, growing from less than 1.2 million people in 1960 to almost 4 million as of 2005, according to 2005 data from Claritas. The growth represents a compound annual growth rate of more than 30% per decade. While all eight counties in the Dallas PMSA have increased substantially in population since 1960, Collin, Denton, and Rockwall Counties have experienced a more accelerated growth rate than the other counties, indicating a definite suburbanization pattern. Whether this increased suburban population is indicative of an exodus of Dallas city residents or representative of newcomers moving directly to the suburbs remains to be determined.

Population rates are influenced by several factors, including births, deaths, international immigration, and net domestic migration. Based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Real Estate Center of Texas A&M University has given estimates of population change and reasons for population change in the eight counties of the Dallas PMSA from 2000 (the year of the last decennial census) to 2005. The numbers (rounded to the nearest percentage) for the eight counties are shown below.

Collin County had an estimated net population increase of about 34%, from 491,675 to 659,457.

Births: 50,128, or approximately 30% of the total change
Deaths: 10,696, or approximately -6% of the total change
International immigration: 18,491, or approximately 11% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 110,837, or approximately 66% of the total change

Dallas County had an estimated net population increase of almost 4%, from 2,218,899 to 2,305,454.

Births: 224,067, or approximately 259% of the total change
Deaths: 73,031, or approximately -84% of the total change
International immigration: 145,990, or approximately 169% of the total change
Net domestic migration: -207,389, or approximately -240% of the total change

Denton County had an estimated net population of increase of about 28%, from 432,976 to 554,642.

Births: 42,888, or approximately 35% of the total change
Deaths: 9,955, or approximately -8% of the total change
International immigration: 10,508, or approximately 9% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 79,129, or approximately 65% of the total change

Ellis County had an estimated net population increase of almost 20%, from 111,360 to 133,474.

Births: 9,870, or approximately 45% of the total change
Deaths: 4,740, or approximately -21% of the total change
International immigration: 2,054, or approximately 9% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 15,176, or approximately 69% of the total change

Henderson County had an estimated net population increase of about 9%, from 73,277 to 80,017.

Births: 6,740, or approximately 74% of the total change
Deaths: 4,830, or approximately -72% of the total change
International immigration: 534, or approximately 8% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 6,159, or approximately 91% of the total change

Hunt County had an estimated net population increase of almost 8%, from 76,596 to 82,543.

Births: 5,856, or approximately 98% of the total change
Deaths: 3,973, or approximately -67% of the total change
International immigration: 1,191, or approximately 20% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 2,979, or approximately 50% of the total change

Kaufman County had an estimated net population increase of almost 25%, from 71,313 to 89,129.

Births: 6,305, or approximately 35% of the total change
Deaths: 3,803, or approximately -21% of the total change
International immigration: 1,083, or approximately 6% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 14,393, or approximately 81% of the total change

Rockwall County had an estimated net population increase of 46%, from 43,080 to 62,944.

Births: 4,081, or approximately 21% of the total change
Deaths: 1,659, or approximately -8% of the total change
International immigration: 545, or approximately 3% of the total change
Net domestic migration: 17,054, or approximately 86% of the total change

It is notable that data show international immigration plays a large part in population increase for the Dallas PMSA. DFW International's report titled North Texas Immigration 2005: Dallas…A Blueprint for the Future, quoted Bernard L. Weinstein of the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas as saying:

Despite a sluggish economy in recent years, Dallas continues to be one of the nation's strongest magnets for international migration. What's more, immigrants will constitute the lion's share of the area's population growth for at least the next decade. This demographic reality poses tremendous challenges and opportunities for the entire region.

See the Community diversity indicator for more information on the subject of international immigration to the Dallas PMSA.