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Statement by Tim Bray, Director, Williams Institute

Texas Senate Hearing on

"Recommendations for Texas Housing Programs"

March 27, 2008

 

 

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Regional Effects and Convergence in Dallas Neighborhood Housing Markets
Riccardo Bodini, PhD   


Housing
Encouraging & Preserving Homeownership
Sales prices
Sales prices

What does this indicator measure?
This indicator reports information about median sales prices for homes in the Dallas area.  The data are reported by local realtors’ offices and aggregated by North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS).  Additional analysis is provided by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.  Because the data are collected and provided by private realtors’ offices, homes sold by owners without the assistance of a realtor are not included in the data.  Unless otherwise noted, the data refer to all constructed homes sold, including new and existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and partially prefabricated homes assembled on the construction site.  Vacant land and mobile homes are not included.  Moreover, the geographies reported are based on local realtor definitions and may not match other geographical boundaries used in Dallas Indicators.  As such, the “Dallas area market” in this indicator includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hunt, Henderson, Rockwall, Kaufman, Van Zandt, Hopkins, Lamar, Delta, Navarro, and Wood Counties, and parts of Grayson and Fannin Counties.

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It is worth emphasizing that the data reported here are regarding home sales prices, not home values.  These data are intended to be an approximation of the price levels at which homes are available for purchase.  It can be argued that lower-income and lower-middle-class homeowners are less likely to move as often as higher-income homeowners who relocate for job reasons or as their earning power increases.  As a result, lower-priced homes may come on the market less often than higher-priced homes.  This may exaggerate the presence of high-priced homes in sales price data somewhat relative to the presence of high-valued homes in the overall housing stock; however, sales price data remains the best available indicator of the prices at which homes are available for purchase.


Why is this indicator important?
Sales prices are the most basic indicator of the owner-occupied housing market.  All other things being equal, the sales price of a home is the most fundamental factor affecting a family’s decision to buy or not to buy a certain home.  Although other measures such as affordability indexes may serve to contextualize a sales price, they also rely heavily on assumptions.  Directly tracking sales price trends provides for different methods of analysis.

For most families, home prices coupled with home characteristics—what you get for your money—will significantly affect the decision to locate in one community or another, either within the Dallas area or between the Dallas area and another area.  Any area that can offer more housing bang, in terms of space, amenities, convenience, and neighborhood quality, for less money will have a competitive advantage.


How are we doing?
Statistics about the overall Dallas area market include the following:
  • Nearly 60,000 homes were bought and sold during 2005, at a total value of more than $12 trillion.
  • In 2005, the median sales price was $154,800, and the average sales price was $202,400.
  • There is dramatic geographical differentiation in median sales price within the Dallas market. 

Interestingly, data for home sales price distribution in the overall Dallas area market appear to show a noticeable change in the distribution.  In 1995, there was a large cluster of homes priced in the lower-price ranges.  In 2000 and 2005, the distribution was more stratified, with smaller percentages of homes in each price range, instead of larger percentages of homes in a smaller number of price ranges.

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By comparing the average sales price, which is sensitive to disproportionately expensive homes, and the median sales price, which is not, we can determine whether or not the housing market is shifting towards relatively more expensive homes.  The ratio of the average sales price to the median sales price in the Dallas area market has remained very steady, ranging between 1.29 and 1.31 for almost every year between 1990 and 2005.  The only notable exception is the period of 2001 through 2003, in which the ratio declined to a ratio between 1.26 and 1.27.  It is possible that the recession during that time somewhat dampened the sale of very expensive homes.

Data show the following statistics from 2005 about counties included in Dallas Indicators:

  • Collin, Denton, Dallas, and Rockwall Counties had median home prices ranging from $186,169 to $170,778—significantly above the Texas median home price of $136,300.
  • Ellis and Kaufman Counties had median home prices of $130,816 and $128,196, respectively, which were near the Texas median home price.
  • Henderson and Hunt Counties had median home prices of $102,878 and $81,049, respectively, which were significantly below the Texas median home price.
Data for area communities in 2005 show the following:
  • Mesquite had one of the least expensive median home prices, at $109,626.
  • The city of Dallas had a median home price of $181,866.
  • Coppell had one of the most expensive median home prices, at $229,121.
  • The Park Cities had a median home price of $642,944—more than 2.8 times that of Coppell.
Within the city of Dallas, the real estate industry identifies nine sectors of the city.  Information from 2005 indicates the following:
  • The Southeast sector (more commonly known as South Dallas) had the lowest median home price, at $76,378.
  • North and South Oak Cliff had very similar median home prices, at $89,346 and $88,454, respectively.
  • The Northeast, Northwest, Far North, East, and Oaklawn sectors had median home prices ranging from $156,883 to $212,963.
  • North Dallas had a median home price of $397,316—nearly twice that of the next highest sector and more than 5 times as high as that of the Southeast sector.

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Almost all of the counties and communities in the area experienced a significant drop in home sales in 2004, in many cases also producing a significant drop in median home prices for 2004.  It is unclear why this may have occurred; however, numbers seem to have recovered in 2005.


 

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